Do Endorsements Matter?

Over the past two weeks, I've received 19 pieces of political mail from 10 different candidates, and their supporters in the form of independent expenditures. Looking at the montage of political literature, I noticed the expansive use of endorsements from PACs, unions, ward organizations and elected officials. But, do these endorsements matter to the recipient of the mail? Sometimes.

Last week, I was phone-banking for Mike Colona, the front-runner in the 67th district state Representative race, and I spoke with a man who told me that he didn't know much about the race, but was voting however his labor tribune and union suggested. This guy is not alone in this type of decision making behavior.

Countless times, as a poll-worker handing out the sample ballots for the 25th Ward Democratic Organization, voters coming to the polls have thanked me for giving them the sample ballot with suggestions on our ward's endorsed candidates.

Some would chastise voters such as these for not investigating all offices and issues on which they are voting. But often, people with busy lives do put their faith in others--their union, ward organization, well-known and elected officials--who have done the homework to vet the candidates and make an informed decision.

I decided to analyze two candidates' campaigns--state Representative Rodney Hubbard running for the 5th district state Senate and 67th district state Representative candidate Mike Colona--and their endorsements to see whether the endorsements could help them on Tuesday.

Let's first look at who is backing Hubbard. Hubbard has an all-star list of supporters, including St. Louis Democratic Party Chairman Brian Wahby, Congressman Lacy Clay, License Collector Michael McMillan, President of the Board of Aldermen Lewis Reed, Circuit Attorney Jennifer Joyce, Collector of Revenue Gregg Daly, state Senator Jeff Smith, state Representatives TD El-Amin and Jamilah Nasheed, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 25th and 28th Ward Democratic organizations, the Laborers' Union, the Teamsters, the Firefighters, the Carpenters and Service Employees International Union.

Analyzing this support in reverse order, the unions should be able to provide legitimacy of Hubbard's candidacy and support of their labor issues to not only their members and other unions' members, but also to those concerned about the labor cause. Certain unions, such as the Firefighters are good for more than that--working for the candidate on election day and throughout the campaign to secure sign locations and volunteers. Finally, unions are typically good for a donation to the campaign. Hubbard has good representation from the unions, especially those known to work for their candidates.

Ward organizations and their committeepeople, while no longer controlling the city's body politic, as they once did, are still vital to candidates' poll working efforts. Each ward that endorses, will on election day, supply workers at the polls to distribute sample ballots containing the names and races of each candidate that ward has endorsed. Having wards' endorsements severely reduces the amount of volunteer and paid poll workers the candidate needs to organize directly. Further, the unattractive, avocado green sample ballot is far more effective at the poll with certain voters than any slick piece of political literature, as it offers legitimacy and 3rd party support. Hubbard having the endorsement of nearly every ward organization in his state Senate district, will have a much easier time reaching voters on election day and with a message that he is well supported by the Democratic Party.

And finally, the 3rd party support of one's elected peers can be the deal-sealer or kiss-of-death, depending on who that elected official is, and how well they are received in the target community.

Take for example Mayor Francis Slay, who rarely publicly endorses local races, but is otherwise a good example. His endorsement to a candidate in a Southwest-city state Representative race would be far more valuable than a North-city Alderman's race because he is far better received in his home base than he is on the North-side.

Hubbard's campaign manager, Antonio French, has been wise about his use of the elected officials' endorsements. While none of Hubbard's endorsers are negatively received in the city, they all have their base of support where they are more positively received. French has used this to his advantage by micro-targeting the use of literature with specific endorsements distributed to those areas where they are best received. With not only the number, but also the calibre of the elected officials endorsing Hubbard, anyone with whom those names hold sway will be voting Hubbard on Tuesday.

Hubbard has hit all three bases with the endorsements and now just needs to bring it home on Tuesday.

As for Colona, although a state Representative race is much smaller than a state Senate race, his endorsements are equally impressive. Colona is backed by former state Treasurer Nancy Farmer, state Representatives Rodney Hubbard, Mike Vogt, Jamilah Nasheed, Alderwoman Jennifer Florida, Democratic Committeepeople Greg Thomas, Alice Nicols, Beth Murphy, Fred Steffens, the 13th, 15th, and 25th ward Democratic organizations, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, Carpenters' District Council, Fraternal Order of Police, Missouri National Education Association, NARAL, St. Louis Police Officers Association, Communication Workers of America, St. Louis Association of Retired Professional Firefighters, International Association of Firefighters, Missouri State Council of Firefighters and the Gas Workers.

As has already be seen, the Firefighters have been working very hard for Colona, as have the Police, two professions well respected by voters in the city. Add to that the endorsement of nearly all of the ward organizations in the district, and Colona will have significant advantage on Tuesday at the polls, as state Representative races rely more heavily on volunteer and ward poll workers than bigger district races, which rely more on paid poll workers. Colona has also sealed the deal with his A-list of elected supporters, all of which are well liked and respected in the 67th district. The endorsements along with Colona's hard work in this campaign has made it much easier for him to win on Tuesday.

As these two cases show, endorsements can matter depending on from whom the endorsement comes, what else will be given with the endorsement and how well the endorser is received by the targeted voters. And, in these two cases, the right endorsement mix will assure victories on Tuesday.